IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 38%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. IFK Varnamo haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in IFK Varnamo's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: IFK Varnamo 2W, GIF Sundsvall 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus GIF Sundsvall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 41% | GIF Sundsvall 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.36 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.875 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.974 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.277. Data: 1 IFK Varnamo games / 31 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 40% | GIF Sundsvall 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.36 / GIF Sundsvall 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.875 / def 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.974 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
GIF Sundsvall xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 35% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.88x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.97x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.69
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.79
1.43
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.43 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. IFK Varnamo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 12L across 32 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.44 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 3W 4D 9L from 16 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 8W 2D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 7D 12L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
GIF Sundsvall's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.81 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.62 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 50%, GIF Sundsvall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Varnamo) and 50% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 38%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Varnamo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat GIF Sundsvall 3-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.36 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.43 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 41%, GIF Sundsvall 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.09 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.