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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Orebro SK, 4 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Orebro SK show 5W 10D 17L from 32 outings in Superettan. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 4-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 32 games (16%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game.

Landskrona BoIS's cumulative Superettan record this campaign: 11W 8D 11L from 30 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game.

Landskrona BoIS lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 3). Penalty activity: Orebro SK 1/1 vs Landskrona BoIS 4/4 this season.

Trading Patterns

Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 64% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.77 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.997 / defence 1.012 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.957 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Orebro SK games / 30 Landskrona BoIS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 51% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 4.17. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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