Ljungskile SK 0-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees IFK Norrkoping travel to Skarsjövallen to take on Ljungskile SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.73 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.877 / defence 1.150 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.228. Data: 1 Ljungskile SK games / 1 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 50% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 27%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 3.70. Ljungskile SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ljungskile SK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 50% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.73 / IFK Norrkoping 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.877 / def 1.150 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
IFK Norrkoping xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Ljungskile SK 0 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 50% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ljungskile SK's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Ljungskile SK's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.21
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.93
1.20
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
5%
21.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Ljungskile SK 0-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat Ljungskile SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Ljungskile SK 0-1 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.73 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.20 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ljungskile SK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 50% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 27%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.