Falkenbergs FF 1-1 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF host Ljungskile SK at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 2.26 xG and Ljungskile SK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.074 / defence 0.921 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.829 / away 1.147. Data: 30 Falkenbergs FF games / 0 Ljungskile SK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 68% | Draw 18% | Ljungskile SK 14%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Ljungskile SK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Falkenbergs FF (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 68% | Draw 18% | Ljungskile SK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 53% | xG Falkenbergs FF 2.26 / Ljungskile SK 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.074 / def 0.921 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.829 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ljungskile SK xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 1 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 68% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Falkenbergs FF home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (1.07) and Ljungskile SK's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ljungskile SK's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.44
14%
7.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.16
0.90
Ljungskile SK xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
7.41
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
10%
9.58
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
1%
70.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 0.90 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK?
From 1 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 1-1 Ljungskile SK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Falkenbergs FF and Ljungskile SK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 2.26 xG and Ljungskile SK 0.90 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 68% | Draw 18% | Ljungskile SK 14%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.