Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Ljungskile SK to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 2D 4L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.57 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.924 / defence 1.103 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.856 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.218. Data: 32 Landskrona BoIS games / 2 Ljungskile SK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 25% | Ljungskile SK 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Ljungskile SK 3.57. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 25% | Ljungskile SK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.57 / Ljungskile SK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.924 / def 1.103 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.856 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ljungskile SK xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Landskrona BoIS home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ljungskile SK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Ljungskile SK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.99
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.72
1.15
Ljungskile SK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
6%
17.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.15 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK?
From 1 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Ljungskile SK.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Ljungskile SK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Ljungskile SK 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.57 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.15 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ljungskile SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 25% | Ljungskile SK 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.