Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees IK brage travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadsparksvallen, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadsparksvallen this season.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jonkopings Sodra 1.80 PPG, IK brage 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jonkopings Sodra register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IK brage in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, IK brage 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IK brage in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 58% and IK brage 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 51% | IK brage 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 xG and IK brage 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.929 / defence 1.312 | IK brage attack 1.164 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.297. Data: 55 Jonkopings Sodra games / 55 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 30% | Draw 22% | IK brage 47%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | IK brage 2.13. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | IK brage 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 30% | Draw 22% | IK brage 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 / IK brage 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.929 / def 1.312 | IK brage attack 1.164 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.98
IK brage xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 30% chance of winning, IK brage a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 1 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (0.93) and IK brage's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
30%
3.31
22%
4.45
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.54
1.98
IK brage xG
3.31
30%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
14%
7.25
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
4%
24.02
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.98 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 14D 23L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.44 PPG from 55 outings (21W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.24 PPG, IK brage on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.44 points per game from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.47 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while IK brage have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.33 PPG; IK brage away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, IK brage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when IK brage 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jonkopings Sodra at 59%, IK brage at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Jonkopings Sodra and 67% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 74% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 67% of IK brage's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IK brage in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 26, as Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 xG and IK brage 1.98 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IK brage landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.93 / defence 1.31 against IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 30% | Draw 22% | IK brage 47%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 51%, IK brage 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.24 PPG, IK brage 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.