IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage meet at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's overall Superettan record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 8W 1D 1L at Grimsta IP — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IK brage (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward IF Brommapojkarna. A 1.40 PPG lead over IK brage (2.40 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IK brage in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for IK brage and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 67% and IK brage 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | IK brage 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.94 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.208 / defence 0.939 | IK brage attack 1.113 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.268. Data: 27 IF Brommapojkarna games / 57 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Draw 25% | IK brage 25%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | IK brage 4.00. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | IK brage 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Draw 25% | IK brage 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.94 / IK brage 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.208 / def 0.939 | IK brage attack 1.113 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
IK brage xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage?
IF Brommapojkarna 3 - 2 IK brage.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 50% chance of winning, IK brage a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. IK brage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 1.21x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.11x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
50%
1.98
25%
4.04
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.26
1.32
IK brage xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
4%
27.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.32 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 16W 5D 6L from 27 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 7L across 27 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.56 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 10W 2D 1L from 13 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — IF Brommapojkarna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IK brage's away record stands at 6W 5D 2L across 13 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.56 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; IK brage in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 16W 5D 6L in their last 27 games (1.96 PPG), while IK brage have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IK brage away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.46 PPG; IK brage away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, IK brage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for IF Brommapojkarna, 85% for IK brage — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for IF Brommapojkarna and 69% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 85% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 69% of IK brage's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IK brage tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, IK brage in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out IK brage 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat IK brage 3-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.94 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against IK brage attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Draw 25% | IK brage 25%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, IK brage 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.96 PPG, IK brage 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.