IFK Varnamo 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Finnvedsvallen to face IFK Varnamo in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Varnamo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 1L across 7 games at Finnvedsvallen this term (2.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in IFK Varnamo's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in just 14% of their matches, AFC Eskilstuna in only 29%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (IFK Varnamo 14% | AFC Eskilstuna 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.37 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.864 / defence 0.796 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.693 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.066. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Varnamo's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 IFK Varnamo games / 14 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 16%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Eskilstuna 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IFK Varnamo (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 14% | AFC Eskilstuna 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.37 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.864 / def 0.796 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.693 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.59
AFC Eskilstuna xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 56% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.69x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 2-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
56%
1.79
28%
3.57
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.96
0.59
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
4%
24.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.59 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 9W 2D 3L from 14 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 6L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Varnamo by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Eskilstuna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 6W 0D 1L from 7 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.21 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; AFC Eskilstuna in 29%.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games; AFC Eskilstuna in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 games (2.07 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.57 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.14 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
0
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (IFK Varnamo) and 29% (AFC Eskilstuna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for IFK Varnamo and 29% for AFC Eskilstuna.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 29% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 29% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 15, as IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.37 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.59 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 0.80 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.69 / defence 1.46, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 16%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 29%, AFC Eskilstuna 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 21%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.