Vasalund 4-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasalund host AFC Eskilstuna at Skytteholms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasalund — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skytteholms IP, Vasalund have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasalund 0.90 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Vasalund's 20% and AFC Eskilstuna's 17% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Vasalund trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 50% versus AFC Eskilstuna 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 67% | AFC Eskilstuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 0.96 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.796 / defence 1.186 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.560 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.057. Vasalund's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Vasalund games / 13 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 40% | Draw 34% | AFC Eskilstuna 26%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasalund at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Vasalund 20% | AFC Eskilstuna 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 40% | Draw 34% | AFC Eskilstuna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Vasalund 0.96 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 0.796 / def 1.186 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.560 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.021 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
0.70
AFC Eskilstuna xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Vasalund 4 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 40% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Vasalund (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasalund's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
40%
2.48
34%
2.94
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Vasalund xG
Total xG
1.67
0.70
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 13.3 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Vasalund and 0.70 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasalund come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 1D 8L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Vasalund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasalund's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Vasalund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.00 points per game from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasalund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasalund are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.25 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna in 25%.
Defensively: AFC Eskilstuna in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Vasalund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.40 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Vasalund or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasalund have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vasalund
0
Draws
0
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna?
Vasalund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vasalund 20% BTTS, AFC Eskilstuna 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Vasalund and 20% for AFC Eskilstuna.
On the defensive side: Vasalund keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vasalund have failed to score in 40% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Vasalund's recent matches and 20% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Vasalund's recent games and 20% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasalund and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Vasalund have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasalund cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat AFC Eskilstuna 4-2 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 0.96 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.70 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Vasalund beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.56 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 40% | Draw 34% | AFC Eskilstuna 26%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 67%, AFC Eskilstuna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Vasalund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasalund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.