AFC Eskilstuna 4-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 45%, yet in-form Norrby IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Tunavallen to face AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 0L across 7 games at Tunavallen this term (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tunavallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Superettan this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.75 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Norrby IF are 0.90 PPG clear of AFC Eskilstuna in recent Superettan fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Norrby IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Norrby IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 33% versus Norrby IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Eskilstuna 33% | Norrby IF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 xG and Norrby IF 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.256 / defence 0.880 | Norrby IF attack 0.939 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.074. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 AFC Eskilstuna games / 15 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 45% | Draw 29% | Norrby IF 26%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Norrby IF 3.85. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 29% | Norrby IF 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 45% | Draw 29% | Norrby IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 / Norrby IF 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.256 / def 0.880 | Norrby IF attack 0.939 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Norrby IF xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
AFC Eskilstuna 4 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 45% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.26) and Norrby IF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.94x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.47
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.16
0.89
Norrby IF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.89 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 3L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Norrby IF by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Eskilstuna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 5W 2D 0L from 7 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.53 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Norrby IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Norrby IF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.43 PPG; Norrby IF away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Norrby IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
3
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Norrby IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Norrby IF 2-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Norrby IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 29% (Norrby IF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 29% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Norrby IF in 57%; Norrby IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 29% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 29% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant AFC Eskilstuna run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Norrby IF 4-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 xG and Norrby IF 0.89 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.26 / defence 0.88 against Norrby IF attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 45% | Draw 29% | Norrby IF 26%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 33%, Norrby IF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Norrby IF's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with AFC Eskilstuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.