Vasteras SK FK 2-3 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akropolis make the trip to Iver Arena to face Vasteras SK FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 9 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK at Iver Arena this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Akropolis have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis's away record: 0W 3D 4L from 7 road trips in Superettan this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.10 for Akropolis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Akropolis half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 50% versus Akropolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Akropolis 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.29 xG and Akropolis 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.925 / defence 1.257 | Akropolis attack 0.673 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.082. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Vasteras SK FK games / 14 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 45% | Draw 28% | Akropolis 26%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Akropolis 3.85. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 50% | Akropolis 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 45% | Draw 28% | Akropolis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.29 / Akropolis 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.925 / def 1.257 | Akropolis attack 0.673 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Akropolis xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 3 Akropolis.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 45% chance of winning, Akropolis a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Akropolis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 0.93x the league average against Akropolis's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Akropolis's attack (0.67x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.52
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.21
0.92
Akropolis xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.92 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 4W 5D 5L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akropolis's form line: 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.00 for Akropolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Vasteras SK FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Akropolis have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akropolis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 0.79 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Akropolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Akropolis away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.71 PPG; Akropolis away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
1
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Akropolis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Akropolis 0-2 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 57%, Akropolis 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Vasteras SK FK) and 29% (Akropolis).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 43% of games; Akropolis in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Akropolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 57% of Akropolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 29% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Akropolis tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akropolis defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Vasteras SK FK 2-3 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.29 xG and Akropolis 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Akropolis outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Akropolis attack 0.67 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 45% | Draw 28% | Akropolis 26%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Akropolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 50%, Akropolis 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Akropolis's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.21 PPG, Akropolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akropolis win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akropolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.