IK brage 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Jonkopings Sodra at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.20 PPG versus Jonkopings Sodra's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 50% versus Jonkopings Sodra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 43% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.80 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.645 / defence 1.185 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.821 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.069. IK brage's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 IK brage games / 14 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 28% | Draw 32% | Jonkopings Sodra 40%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 33% | Jonkopings Sodra 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 28% | Draw 32% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG IK brage 0.80 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.645 / def 1.185 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.821 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Jonkopings Sodra xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
IK brage 3 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 28% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
28%
3.64
32%
3.11
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
IK brage xG
Total xG
1.84
1.04
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for IK brage and 1.04 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage's recent record stands at 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 5L across 14 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jonkopings Sodra by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IK brage heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Jonkopings Sodra's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 0.67 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
2
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when IK brage 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 33%, Jonkopings Sodra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (IK brage) and 50% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 50% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IK brage's recent games and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.80 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.04 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.65 / defence 1.19 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 28% | Draw 32% | Jonkopings Sodra 40%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 43%, Jonkopings Sodra 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with IK brage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.