Gais 2-0 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Vasalund in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Monday 9 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Gais are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Vasalund's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasalund have posted 1W 0D 6L from 7 away outings — 0.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Vasalund arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Vasalund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 29% versus Vasalund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 21% | Vasalund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.46 xG and Vasalund 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.819 / defence 1.433 | Vasalund attack 0.945 / defence 1.619. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.082. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.619 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Gais games / 14 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 38%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Vasalund 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gais 57% | Vasalund 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Gais 1.46 / Vasalund 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.819 / def 1.433 | Vasalund attack 0.945 / def 1.619 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Vasalund xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Vasalund kick off?
Gais vs Vasalund kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Vasalund?
Gais 2 - 0 Vasalund.
Where is Gais vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Vasalund part of?
Gais vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 38% chance of winning, Vasalund a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gais and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Vasalund in?
Gais (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Vasalund (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.82) and Vasalund's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasalund's attack (0.94x) against Gais's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Gais xG
Total xG
2.92
1.47
Vasalund xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Gais and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gais and 1.47 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Gais have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund's form line: 4W 1D 9L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Gais against 0.93 for Vasalund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Vasalund have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasalund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gais have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Vasalund away?
Gais's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.00 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Vasalund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2021, when Vasalund 3-4 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Vasalund?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 57%, Vasalund 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Gais and 86% for Vasalund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Vasalund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gais's games and 71% of Vasalund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Gais's matches and 86% of Vasalund's.
Do Gais and Vasalund tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasalund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Vasalund 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.46 xG and Vasalund 1.47 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vasalund landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.82 / defence 1.43 against Vasalund attack 0.94 / defence 1.62, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 38% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 38%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 21%, Vasalund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasalund's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.00 PPG, Vasalund 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.