AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (AFC Eskilstuna) versus 0.60 (Jonkopings Sodra). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AFC Eskilstuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AFC Eskilstuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Jonkopings Sodra have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 3–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AFC Eskilstuna and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AFC Eskilstuna 53% and Jonkopings Sodra 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Jonkopings Sodra 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.61 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.786 / defence 0.977 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.858 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.293. AFC Eskilstuna's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 AFC Eskilstuna games / 57 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Jonkopings Sodra 4.00. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.61 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.786 / def 0.977 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.858 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Jonkopings Sodra xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 50% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 4W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.02
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.70
1.08
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.08 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 18W 12D 27L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 16W 18D 23L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.16 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (12W 5D 11L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 5W 11D 12L from 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.44 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 72%.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 12D 27L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 16W 18D 23L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.46 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 57%, Jonkopings Sodra 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 61% (Jonkopings Sodra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 68% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's matches and 61% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 2-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.61 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.79 / defence 0.98 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 51%, Jonkopings Sodra 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.