Akropolis 3-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Grimsta IP to face Akropolis in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Akropolis (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akropolis have posted 5W 1D 4L at Grimsta IP — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Akropolis, 1.30 for Trelleborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Akropolis 0W, Trelleborg 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Akropolis — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akropolis 46% versus Trelleborg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akropolis 38% | Trelleborg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 0.94 xG and Trelleborg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.698 / defence 1.154 | Trelleborg attack 0.818 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.175. Akropolis's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Akropolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Akropolis games / 26 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 30% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Trelleborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Akropolis 30% | Trelleborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 30% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Akropolis 0.94 / Trelleborg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.698 / def 1.154 | Trelleborg attack 0.818 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Trelleborg xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Trelleborg kick off?
Akropolis vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Trelleborg?
Akropolis 3 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Akropolis vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Trelleborg part of?
Akropolis vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 30% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Akropolis and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Akropolis 0W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Akropolis and Trelleborg in?
Akropolis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akropolis's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.82x) against Akropolis's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.30
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Trelleborg xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Akropolis and 1.11 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Akropolis have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 7D 11L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 11W 9D 6L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Akropolis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Akropolis have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 6D 4L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trelleborg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Akropolis are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akropolis and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Akropolis have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akropolis at home or Trelleborg away?
Akropolis's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akropolis at home: 1.38 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Akropolis or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akropolis have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Akropolis
1
Draws
0
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 1, Trelleborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Akropolis 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and Trelleborg?
Akropolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akropolis 38%, Trelleborg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Akropolis and 38% for Trelleborg.
On the defensive side: Akropolis keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Akropolis have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akropolis play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Akropolis's recent matches and 62% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akropolis vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Akropolis's recent games and 38% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akropolis and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Akropolis have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akropolis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Trelleborg 3-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 0.94 xG and Trelleborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Akropolis beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 30% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 39%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Akropolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akropolis 38%, Trelleborg 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akropolis's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Akropolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akropolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.