Akropolis 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akropolis host Landskrona BoIS at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Akropolis have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis's home record at Grimsta IP: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Akropolis at 1.10 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Akropolis, 0 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Akropolis in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akropolis 48% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akropolis 40% | Landskrona BoIS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 1.01 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.703 / defence 1.236 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.765 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.196. Akropolis's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Akropolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Akropolis games / 25 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 32% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 38%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Akropolis 30% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 32% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Akropolis 1.01 / Landskrona BoIS 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.703 / def 1.236 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.765 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Landskrona BoIS xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS?
Akropolis 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 32% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Akropolis 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS in?
Akropolis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Akropolis's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Akropolis's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.39
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.14
1.13
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Akropolis and 1.13 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akropolis's recent record stands at 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 8L across 25 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Landskrona BoIS by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akropolis heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akropolis have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akropolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akropolis are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.40 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Akropolis have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 12W 5D 8L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akropolis at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Akropolis's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akropolis at home: 1.25 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Akropolis
1
Draws
0
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Akropolis 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS?
Akropolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akropolis 42%, Landskrona BoIS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Akropolis) and 58% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Akropolis have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akropolis play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Akropolis's recent matches and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Akropolis's recent games and 58% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akropolis and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Akropolis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akropolis defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 1.01 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.13 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.24 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 32% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 38%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Akropolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akropolis 40%, Landskrona BoIS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akropolis's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Akropolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akropolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.