AFC Eskilstuna 0-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 41%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tunavallen plays host to AFC Eskilstuna versus IFK Varnamo in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 1 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
IFK Varnamo arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 0 for IFK Varnamo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 50% versus IFK Varnamo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 50% | IFK Varnamo 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.46 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.121 / defence 1.094 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.013 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.161. Data: 26 AFC Eskilstuna games / 26 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 41% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 33%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Varnamo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 70% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 41% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.46 / IFK Varnamo 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.121 / def 1.094 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.013 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IFK Varnamo xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 41% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 1.12x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (1.01x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.87
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
IFK Varnamo xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.29 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 8W 7D 11L from 26 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 5L across 26 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Varnamo by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Eskilstuna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 7W 4D 2L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 6W 3D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Varnamo's season.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.42 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 16W 5D 5L in their last 26 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or IFK Varnamo away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.92 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.62 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 54%, IFK Varnamo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 46% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 31%; IFK Varnamo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 38% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 46% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.46 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 41% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 33%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 50%, IFK Varnamo 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.