Gais 1-4 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Norrby IF at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 2W 2D 6L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Norrby IF have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gais at 1.30 PPG versus Norrby IF's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gais, 0 for Norrby IF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2021, ended 2–0 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gais trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Norrby IF trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 38% versus Norrby IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 38% | Norrby IF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.98 xG and Norrby IF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.818 / defence 1.329 | Norrby IF attack 0.836 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.161. Data: 26 Gais games / 26 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 28% | Draw 29% | Norrby IF 43%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Norrby IF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gais 50% | Norrby IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 28% | Draw 29% | Norrby IF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Gais 0.98 / Norrby IF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.818 / def 1.329 | Norrby IF attack 0.836 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Norrby IF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Norrby IF kick off?
Gais vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Norrby IF?
Gais 1 - 4 Norrby IF.
Where is Gais vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Norrby IF part of?
Gais vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 28% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gais and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Gais and Norrby IF in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.82) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
28%
3.57
29%
3.50
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Gais xG
Total xG
2.27
1.29
Norrby IF xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gais and 1.29 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais's recent record stands at 9W 3D 14L from 26 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 7L across 26 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.15 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gais have managed 4W 2D 7L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 5W 4D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.27 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 9W 3D 14L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.08 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Gais or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gais
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Norrby IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2021, when Gais 1-4 Norrby IF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 54%, Norrby IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gais) and 38% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF in 38%; Gais have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Gais's recent matches and 46% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gais's recent games and 38% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Norrby IF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Gais 1-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.98 xG and Norrby IF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Norrby IF outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.82 / defence 1.33 against Norrby IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 28% | Draw 29% | Norrby IF 43%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 38%, Norrby IF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.15 PPG, Norrby IF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norrby IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Norrby IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.