Trelleborg 1-2 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Vasalund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Vasalund travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasalund have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Trelleborg are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 0, Vasalund 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Vasalund in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 59% versus Vasalund 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 44% | Vasalund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 2.03 xG and Vasalund 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.279 / defence 1.001 | Vasalund attack 0.753 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.229. Trelleborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Trelleborg games / 27 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 63% | Draw 21% | Vasalund 16%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Vasalund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trelleborg (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 40% | Vasalund 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 63% | Draw 21% | Vasalund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Trelleborg 2.03 / Vasalund 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.279 / def 1.001 | Vasalund attack 0.753 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Vasalund xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Vasalund kick off?
Trelleborg vs Vasalund kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Vasalund?
Trelleborg 1 - 2 Vasalund.
Where is Trelleborg vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Vasalund part of?
Trelleborg vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 63% chance of winning, Vasalund a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trelleborg and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 1 | Vasalund 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Vasalund in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Vasalund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.28x the league average against Vasalund's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.72
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.96
0.93
Vasalund xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
47.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.93 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Vasalund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 11W 9D 7L from 27 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 16L across 27 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trelleborg by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasalund heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 8W 3D 2L from 13 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Trelleborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasalund's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.15 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Vasalund away?
Trelleborg's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 2.08 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trelleborg
1
Draws
1
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 0, Vasalund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2021, when Trelleborg 1-2 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Vasalund?
Vasalund have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 54%, Vasalund 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trelleborg) and 69% (Vasalund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vasalund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 54% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Trelleborg's matches and 69% of Vasalund's.
Do Trelleborg and Vasalund tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasalund defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 2.03 xG and Vasalund 0.93 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vasalund outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Vasalund attack 0.75 / defence 1.45, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 63% | Draw 21% | Vasalund 16%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Vasalund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 44%, Vasalund 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Vasalund's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Vasalund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasalund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.