Helsingborg 3-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IK brage make the trip to Olympia to face Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Olympia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IK brage (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Helsingborg, 0 for IK brage and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 38% versus IK brage 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | IK brage 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.33 xG and IK brage 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.937 / defence 1.067 | IK brage attack 1.007 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.174. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Helsingborg games / 26 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 38% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | IK brage 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 38% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Helsingborg 1.33 / IK brage 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.937 / def 1.067 | IK brage attack 1.007 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
IK brage xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IK brage kick off?
Helsingborg vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Helsingborg 3 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Helsingborg vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IK brage part of?
Helsingborg vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 38% chance of winning, IK brage a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Helsingborg and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.94x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.01x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.79
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.59
1.26
IK brage xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.26 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 7D 7L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of IK brage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Helsingborg's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.27 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while IK brage have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IK brage away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.54 PPG; IK brage away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, IK brage in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 5, IK brage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, IK brage 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Helsingborg) and 54% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 69% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Helsingborg's recent games and 54% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IK brage tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IK brage 3-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.33 xG and IK brage 1.26 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 38% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, IK brage 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
IK brage's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.