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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF encounter.

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Match Analysis

Vasteras SK FK host Degerfors IF at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.

Degerfors IF — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Degerfors IF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasteras SK FK at 1.20 PPG versus Degerfors IF's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Degerfors IF in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Degerfors IF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Vasteras SK FK's 2 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Degerfors IF winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Degerfors IF have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Injury Round-Up

Vasteras SK FK go into this one short, with 3 players unavailable: Boudah, Nsabiyumva, Ring. Degerfors IF are missing 3 players for this trip: Lindell, Pikkarainen, Salifu.

Season Statistics

Vasteras SK FK's full-season record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games. Attacking returns: 1.8 goals per game; defensive: 2.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: – (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 4-5 (H) / 4-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (0 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 11 games (36%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-3. Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards per game, 0.09 reds per game.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Degerfors IF trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 56% versus Degerfors IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 68% | Degerfors IF 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.51 xG and Degerfors IF 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.006 / defence 1.368 | Degerfors IF attack 0.997 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.548. Data: 11 Vasteras SK FK games / 41 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 51%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 1.96. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Degerfors IF 90% BTTS from recent games.

Vasteras SK FK head in with 3 confirmed absences, which could disrupt squad depth. — factor the squad news into your confidence level before committing.

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