Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Malmo FF travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Odds Breakdown
Bookmakers make Malmo FF the preferred side — Degerfors IF priced at 3.23 (29% implied), Draw at 3.35 (28%), Malmo FF at 2.13 (44% implied).
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stora Valla — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.30 (Malmo FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Malmo FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Malmo FF, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Degerfors IF.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Malmo FF have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 58% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 58% | Malmo FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.34 xG and Malmo FF 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.824 / defence 1.127 | Malmo FF attack 0.922 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.457. Data: 40 Degerfors IF games / 40 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 33% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Malmo FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 2.13 (fair-implied 44% vs Poisson 40%). With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting. The market (1.82, fair-implied 52%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.65, fair-implied 56%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 33% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Degerfors IF 1.34 / Malmo FF 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.824 / def 1.127 | Malmo FF attack 0.922 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Degerfors IF 3.23 (impl 29%) | Draw 3.35 (impl 28%) | Malmo FF 2.13 (impl 44%) • Market favourite: Malmo FF at 2.13 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Malmo FF — Poisson 40% vs market implied 44% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.82 (impl 55%) / Under 2.5 1.95 (impl 51%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 54% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.65 (impl 61%) / No 2.12 (impl 47%) | Poisson BTTS probability 59%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Malmo FF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 33% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Degerfors IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Record (8 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 2 | Malmo FF 6W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
1X2 market: Degerfors IF 3.23 (impl 29%) | Draw 3.35 (impl 28%) | Malmo FF 2.13 (impl 44%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
33%
3.05
27%
3.72
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.51
Malmo FF xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.51 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 10W 10D 20L from 40 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 12L across 40 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 1W 7D 12L from 20 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 8W 7D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.65 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.50 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Malmo FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Malmo FF 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 50%, Malmo FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Degerfors IF) and 40% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 40%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 50% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 40% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.34 xG and Malmo FF 1.51 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Malmo FF attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 33% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 40%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 58%, Malmo FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.