Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as Mjallby AIF welcome AIK Stockholm to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.20 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 4 for AIK Stockholm and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 51% versus AIK Stockholm 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 44% | AIK Stockholm 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.26 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.860 / defence 0.825 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.004 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.517. Data: 41 Mjallby AIF games / 41 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | AIK Stockholm 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.26 / AIK Stockholm 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.860 / def 0.825 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.004 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AIK Stockholm xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 35% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 4W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.42
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.51
1.26
AIK Stockholm xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.26 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 27W 10D 4L from 41 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 12L across 41 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AIK Stockholm heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 27W 10D 4L in their last 41 games (2.22 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.26 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 42%, AIK Stockholm 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Mjallby AIF) and 58% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Mjallby AIF's games and 68% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 58% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Mjallby AIF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 1-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.26 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.26 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 44%, AIK Stockholm 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with AIK Stockholm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.