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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 July 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.60 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Mjallby AIF show 4W 4D 4L from 12 outings in Allsvenskan. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 12 games (33%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-3. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Table Standings

In the Allsvenskan table, Vasteras SK FK sit 8th on 18 points, 2 places and 2 points ahead of Mjallby AIF in 10th.

Mjallby AIF's home record this season stands at 2W 0D 3L. On the road, Vasteras SK FK's record stands at 4W 0D 2L this term.

In-Play Profile

Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 52% versus Vasteras SK FK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 45% | Vasteras SK FK 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.810 / defence 0.909 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.065 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.438. Data: 42 Mjallby AIF games / 12 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 38% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 30% | Vasteras SK FK 60%.

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