Halmstad 1-3 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Halmstad at 36%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Halmstad welcome Vasteras SK FK to Orjans Vall. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 July 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Halmstad stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad at Orjans Vall this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Halmstad's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Halmstad, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Halmstad trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 40% versus Vasteras SK FK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 45% | Vasteras SK FK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.38 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.754 / defence 1.037 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.910 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.457. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Halmstad games / 10 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 36% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 36%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 40% | Vasteras SK FK 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Orjans Vall • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 36% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Halmstad 1.38 / Vasteras SK FK 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.754 / def 1.037 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.910 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Vasteras SK FK xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Orjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Halmstad 1 - 3 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Orjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 36% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (4 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK in?
Halmstad (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Halmstad's attack rating (0.75) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.63
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.76
1.37
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.37 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Halmstad's recent record stands at 11W 8D 21L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 9L across 40 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasteras SK FK by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Halmstad heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 12W 1D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Halmstad are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.98 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 23W 8D 9L in their last 40 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.15 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Halmstad's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Halmstad 1-3 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 40%, Vasteras SK FK 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Halmstad) and 70% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Halmstad's recent matches and 55% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Halmstad's matches and 70% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Halmstad 1-3 at Orjans Vall, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.38 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.37 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 36% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 36%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 45%, Vasteras SK FK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.