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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face Degerfors IF.

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Match Analysis

Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Odds Analysis

Hammarby FF are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Hammarby FF 1.26 (74%) | Draw 5.45 (17%) | Degerfors IF 10.15 (9%).

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at 3Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Degerfors IF away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for Degerfors IF, with 2 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Season Statistics

Hammarby FF's full-season record stands at 7W 2D 4L from 13 games. Their scoring output is 2.2 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 8-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 13 games (31%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Table Context

The standings have Hammarby FF (2nd, 23 pts) 11 places above Degerfors IF (13th, 10 pts) — a 13-point gap in Allsvenskan.

On home turf, Hammarby FF's Allsvenskan record reads 5W 1D 1L this term. Away from home, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 2D 2L in Allsvenskan this season. Hammarby FF: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

Trading Patterns

Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 52% versus Degerfors IF 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | Degerfors IF 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.14 xG and Degerfors IF 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.349 / defence 0.764 | Degerfors IF attack 0.836 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.438. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Hammarby FF games / 42 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 65% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 15%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Degerfors IF 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model sees Hammarby FF as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 65% versus the market's fair-implied 74% (priced at 1.26). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting. The market (1.51, fair-implied 62%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 50% | Degerfors IF 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.89, fair-implied 49%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.

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