Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Varbergs BoIS FC face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC host Djurgardens IF at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 0D 8L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Djurgardens IF have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Varbergs BoIS FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Djurgardens IF have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Jul 2023, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 0–2 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 49% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Djurgardens IF 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Varbergs BoIS FC surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Djurgardens IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.773 / defence 1.453 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.920 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.212. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.453 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Djurgardens IF's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 55 games and Djurgardens IF's last 55.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 23% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 52%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.29 | Draw 4.03 | Djurgardens IF 1.93. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 home games and Djurgardens IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 26 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 23% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 / Djurgardens IF 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.773 / def 1.453 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.920 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Djurgardens IF xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 23% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.77) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 55 games and Djurgardens IF's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
23%
4.29
25%
4.03
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.62
Djurgardens IF xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
21.67
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.62 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 12W 12D 31L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 30W 10D 15L from 55 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 0.96 PPG from their last 27 home games (6W 8D 13L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 9W 8D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.64 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 12W 12D 31L in their last 55 games (0.87 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 30W 10D 15L in their last 55 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.96 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 4-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2023: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 41%, Djurgardens IF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 37% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 37%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 48% of games; Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 59% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.62 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.45 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 23% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 52%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Djurgardens IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.