IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome IF Elfsborg to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 3W 2D 5L at Grimsta IP — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. IF Elfsborg's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–5 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 64% versus IF Elfsborg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 66% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.03 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.913 / defence 1.250 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.142 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.216. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 IF Brommapojkarna games / 55 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | IF Elfsborg 1.85. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | IF Elfsborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.03 / IF Elfsborg 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.913 / def 1.250 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.142 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.74
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 22% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
22%
4.47
24%
4.22
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.76
1.74
IF Elfsborg xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
25.39
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.74 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 27W 8D 20L from 55 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 12L across 55 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.62 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 16W 4D 7L from 27 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.89 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 27W 8D 20L in their last 55 games (1.62 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 13D 12L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.93 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
5
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 67%, IF Elfsborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 48% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%; IF Elfsborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 44% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.03 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.74 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 66%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.62 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.