Djurgardens IF 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 1.60 PPG versus Hammarby FF's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Djurgardens IF's 30% rate and Hammarby FF's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Djurgardens IF, 1 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 3–4 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 39% versus Hammarby FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 50% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.27 xG and Hammarby FF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.080 / defence 0.883 | Hammarby FF attack 0.870 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.237. Data: 56 Djurgardens IF games / 56 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | Hammarby FF 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.27 / Hammarby FF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.080 / def 0.883 | Hammarby FF attack 0.870 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hammarby FF xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (4 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.08) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.51
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.22
0.95
Hammarby FF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.95 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 31W 10D 15L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 15D 14L from 56 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.84 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.32 PPG from 28 outings (21W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 7D 11L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.73 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 15L in their last 56 games (1.84 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.32 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
4
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 39%, Hammarby FF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Djurgardens IF) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 39%; Hammarby FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 36% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.27 xG and Hammarby FF 0.95 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Hammarby FF attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 28%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 50%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.84 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.