IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Elfsborg face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as IF Elfsborg welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, IF Elfsborg have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of IF Elfsborg: 3 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC, with 4 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives IF Elfsborg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 52% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.44 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.187 / defence 0.907 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.848 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.239. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 IF Elfsborg games / 54 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 70% | Draw 17% | Varbergs BoIS FC 13%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Varbergs BoIS FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: IF Elfsborg 40% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 70% | Draw 17% | Varbergs BoIS FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 56% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.44 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.187 / def 0.907 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.848 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 70% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (7 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 4 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.19) and Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.86
13%
7.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.40
0.95
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.86
17%
Draw
7.79
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
9%
11.51
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
1%
89.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.95 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 29W 13D 12L from 54 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 30L across 54 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 16W 7D 4L from 27 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 13D 12L in their last 54 games (1.85 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 12W 12D 30L in their last 54 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.04 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.81 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 52%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (IF Elfsborg) and 63% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.44 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.95 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.42, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 70% | Draw 17% | Varbergs BoIS FC 13%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 52%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.