IFK Goteborg 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sirius (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. IFK Goteborg's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Goteborg lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 0–2 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 46% versus Sirius 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 44% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.51 xG and Sirius 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.038 / defence 0.844 | Sirius attack 0.962 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.215. Data: 55 IFK Goteborg games / 55 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 26% | Sirius 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Sirius 4.00. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Sirius 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 26% | Sirius 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.51 / Sirius 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.038 / def 0.844 | Sirius attack 0.962 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sirius xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 Sirius.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 49% chance of winning, Sirius a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 1 | Sirius 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.96x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.86
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.50
0.99
Sirius xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.99 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 12D 22L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.16 PPG from 55 outings (17W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.16 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 12W 6D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (6W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Sirius away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.56 PPG; Sirius away: 1.04 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 48%, Sirius 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 44% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.51 xG and Sirius 0.99 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 26% | Sirius 25%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 44%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.36 PPG, Sirius 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.