Sirius 3-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Sirius welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sirius carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sirius, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 45% versus IF Brommapojkarna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 52% | IF Brommapojkarna 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.62 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.411 / defence 1.158 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.991 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.231. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Sirius games / 26 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 63% | Draw 18% | IF Brommapojkarna 19%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | IF Brommapojkarna 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.04 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 63% | Draw 18% | IF Brommapojkarna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 70% | xG Sirius 2.62 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.411 / def 1.158 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.991 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Sirius (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.41
IF Brommapojkarna xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius 3 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 63% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sirius's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
63%
1.58
18%
5.70
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Sirius xG
Total xG
4.04
1.41
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
7%
13.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
1%
72.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Sirius and 1.41 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 13D 25L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 27W 8D 21L from 56 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.20 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (11W 3D 14L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.73 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 27W 8D 21L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.29 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Sirius or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Sirius
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 46%, IF Brommapojkarna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sirius) and 61% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sirius's recent matches and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sirius's matches and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out IF Brommapojkarna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.62 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.41 / defence 1.16 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.99 / defence 1.33, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 63% | Draw 18% | IF Brommapojkarna 19%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 52%, IF Brommapojkarna 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.20 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.