Hammarby FF 2-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 30 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.80 (Sirius). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Hammarby FF: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Sirius, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
The historical record gives Hammarby FF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 47% versus Sirius 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 54% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.50 xG and Sirius 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.166 / defence 1.115 | Sirius attack 0.967 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.214. Data: 57 Hammarby FF games / 57 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 25% | Sirius 33%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | Sirius 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 25% | Sirius 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 1.50 / Sirius 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.166 / def 1.115 | Sirius attack 0.967 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 October 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Hammarby FF 2 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 42% chance of winning, Sirius a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Record (4 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 1 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Sirius (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
42%
2.39
25%
3.99
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Sirius xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.31 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 16D 14L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.23 PPG from 57 outings (19W 13D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hammarby FF's home form reads 17W 8D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (7W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.30 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 16D 14L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 13D 25L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Sirius away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.11 PPG; Sirius away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 61%, Sirius 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hammarby FF) and 50% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sirius in 32%; Sirius in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hammarby FF's matches and 50% of Sirius's.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sirius in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and Sirius finished level at 2-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.50 xG and Sirius 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Sirius attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 25% | Sirius 33%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 54%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.