Halmstad 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Halmstad have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Örjans Vall this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Halmstad are significantly better at Örjans Vall than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Halmstad have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Mjallby AIF in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Halmstad, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Halmstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 50% versus Mjallby AIF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 59% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 0.65 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.607 / defence 1.097 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.237. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 26 Halmstad games / 56 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 18% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 55%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Halmstad 30% | Mjallby AIF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 18% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Halmstad 0.65 / Mjallby AIF 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.607 / def 1.097 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Mjallby AIF xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Halmstad 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 18% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Halmstad and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.61x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.02x) against Halmstad's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
18%
5.68
28%
3.60
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.03
1.38
Mjallby AIF xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
4%
22.63
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.38 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 11D 20L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Halmstad against 1.38 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (14W 6D 8L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 5D 10L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Halmstad's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.71 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Halmstad
3
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (Halmstad) and 21% (Mjallby AIF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Halmstad) and 25% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 46%; Halmstad have failed to score in 29% of games; Mjallby AIF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Halmstad's recent matches and 21% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Halmstad's recent games and 25% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF finished level at 1-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.65 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.38 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.61 / defence 1.10 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.02 / defence 0.77, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 18% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 55%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 59%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.54 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.