Orebro SK 1-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Orebro SK welcome Kalmar FF to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 3D 6L at Behrn Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Kalmar FF's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 1, Kalmar FF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 49% versus Kalmar FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 56% | Kalmar FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.06 xG and Kalmar FF 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.713 / defence 1.223 | Kalmar FF attack 1.219 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.158. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kalmar FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Orebro SK games / 57 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 23% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 53%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Kalmar FF 1.89. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 23% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Orebro SK 1.06 / Kalmar FF 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.713 / def 1.223 | Kalmar FF attack 1.219 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Kalmar FF xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Orebro SK 1 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF part of?
Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 23% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Orebro SK and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Kalmar FF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.71x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
23%
4.30
24%
4.21
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.79
1.73
Kalmar FF xG
4.30
23%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
24.17
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.73 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 16W 11D 30L from 57 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 20L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.04 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 12W 7D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.14 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 16W 11D 30L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 19W 18D 20L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.32 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2020, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
4
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 54%, Kalmar FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orebro SK) and 50% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 54% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orebro SK's recent games and 50% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Orebro SK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.06 xG and Kalmar FF 1.73 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Kalmar FF attack 1.22 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 23% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 53%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, Kalmar FF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.04 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.