Sirius 3-3 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sirius, 1.50 for IFK Goteborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 63% versus IFK Goteborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 58% | IFK Goteborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.34 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.903 / defence 1.152 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.053 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.139. Data: 57 Sirius games / 57 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 36% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 38%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Goteborg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | IFK Goteborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 36% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sirius 1.34 / IFK Goteborg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.903 / def 1.152 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.053 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.38
IFK Goteborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Sirius 3 - 3 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 36% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sirius and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.90x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (1.05x) against Sirius's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.89
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.72
1.38
IFK Goteborg xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sirius and 1.38 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 18W 17D 22L from 57 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 21L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sirius against 1.19 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 11W 7D 10L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 8W 12D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 18W 17D 22L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Sirius's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 64%, IFK Goteborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sirius) and 46% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 32%; IFK Goteborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sirius's games and 54% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sirius's recent games and 46% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 28, as Sirius and IFK Goteborg drew 3-3 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.34 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.38 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 36% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 38%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 58%, IFK Goteborg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.25 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.