Hammarby FF 3-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and Orebro SK meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Hammarby FF's 1.90 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for Orebro SK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 64% versus Orebro SK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 59% | Orebro SK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.47 xG and Orebro SK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.236 / defence 0.988 | Orebro SK attack 0.751 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.119. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Hammarby FF games / 56 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 73% | Draw 17% | Orebro SK 10%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Orebro SK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | Orebro SK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 73% | Draw 17% | Orebro SK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 52% | xG Hammarby FF 2.47 / Orebro SK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.236 / def 0.988 | Orebro SK attack 0.751 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Orebro SK xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Hammarby FF 3 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK part of?
Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 73% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hammarby FF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Orebro SK in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.24x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.75x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.99
10%
9.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.30
0.83
Orebro SK xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
9.66
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
8%
11.79
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
113.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.83 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 18D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.05 PPG from 56 outings (16W 11D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hammarby FF's home form reads 13W 12D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (6W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.98 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 16W 11D 29L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Orebro SK away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.82 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 3-0 on 27 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Hammarby FF 3-2 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Orebro SK?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 61%, Orebro SK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hammarby FF) and 57% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 57% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Orebro SK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Orebro SK 3-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.47 xG and Orebro SK 0.83 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Orebro SK outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 73% | Draw 17% | Orebro SK 10%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 59%, Orebro SK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.