Degerfors IF 1-4 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 38%, yet in-form Hammarby FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Hammarby FF at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stora Valla — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for Hammarby FF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 1–5 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 44% versus Hammarby FF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | Hammarby FF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.29 xG and Hammarby FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.845 / defence 1.202 | Hammarby FF attack 0.909 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.116. Data: 27 Degerfors IF games / 57 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 35%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby FF (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Degerfors IF 1.29 / Hammarby FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.845 / def 1.202 | Hammarby FF attack 0.909 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 4 Hammarby FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 38% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.84) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.69
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.50
1.22
Hammarby FF xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.22 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 8W 4D 15L from 27 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 7L across 27 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 6W 1D 6L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.67 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.46 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 46%, Hammarby FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Degerfors IF) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 62% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 1-4 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.29 xG and Hammarby FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Hammarby FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 35%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 56%, Hammarby FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.