Ostersunds FK 0-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ostersunds FK face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 22 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjallby AIF are 1.10 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Mjallby AIF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 42% versus Mjallby AIF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 54% | Mjallby AIF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.00 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.835 / defence 1.211 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.950 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.158. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Ostersunds FK games / 57 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 44%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.00 / Mjallby AIF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.835 / def 1.211 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.950 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mjallby AIF xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 28% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.95x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
28%
3.57
28%
3.62
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.33
1.33
Mjallby AIF xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.33 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 57 games, going 11W 14D 32L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.37 PPG from 57 outings (20W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 5W 6D 17L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (7W 10D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.35 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 14D 32L in their last 57 games (0.82 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 18D 19L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.75 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 1 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-2 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Mjallby AIF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ostersunds FK) and 46% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 39% of games; Mjallby AIF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 54% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 46% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.00 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 44%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 54%, Mjallby AIF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.