Hammarby FF 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 7W 1D 2L at Tele2 Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 2.20 PPG, IFK Goteborg 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for IFK Goteborg, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Hammarby FF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 46% versus IFK Goteborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IFK Goteborg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.76 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.251 / defence 1.070 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.881 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.225. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Hammarby FF games / 54 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | IFK Goteborg 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 1.76 / IFK Goteborg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.251 / def 1.070 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.881 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IFK Goteborg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 52% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (4 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.26
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.92
1.16
IFK Goteborg xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.16 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 27W 13D 14L from 54 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.74 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 17W 6D 3L from 26 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 13D 14L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.19 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 58%, IFK Goteborg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hammarby FF and 54% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 42% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hammarby FF's matches and 54% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.76 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, IFK Goteborg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.74 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.