IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host AIK Stockholm at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.20 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AIK Stockholm have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for IFK Goteborg.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AIK Stockholm have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 45% versus AIK Stockholm 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 48% | AIK Stockholm 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.17 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.798 / defence 0.964 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.970 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.475. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 IFK Goteborg games / 40 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 41%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | AIK Stockholm 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 40% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.17 / AIK Stockholm 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.798 / def 0.964 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.970 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
AIK Stockholm xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 July 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 31% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (9 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 5W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.59
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.55
1.38
AIK Stockholm xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.38 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 7D 15L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.50 PPG from 40 outings (16W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.52 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 7W 3D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 7D 15L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.26 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.26 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, AIK Stockholm 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (IFK Goteborg) and 53% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of IFK Goteborg's games and 63% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 53% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Goteborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.17 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 41%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 48%, AIK Stockholm 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.52 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.