AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sirius at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Sirius travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Strawberry Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Sirius and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 48% versus Sirius 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 50% | Sirius 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.39 xG and Sirius 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.898 / defence 1.100 | Sirius attack 1.346 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.345. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 AIK Stockholm games / 39 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 26% | Draw 24% | Sirius 51%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 1.96. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
AIK Stockholm dominate the H2H record, yet Sirius are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Sirius 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 26% | Draw 24% | Sirius 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.39 / Sirius 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.898 / def 1.100 | Sirius attack 1.346 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Sirius (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Sirius xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 3 Sirius.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 26% chance of winning, Sirius a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
Record (9 meetings): AIK Stockholm 4W | Draws 3 | Sirius 2W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
26%
3.87
24%
4.26
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.38
1.99
Sirius xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
14%
7.33
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
28.37
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.99 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 30W 12D 18L from 60 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 26L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.70 PPG, Sirius on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 17W 7D 6L from 30 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.67 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 67%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Sirius have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Sirius away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.93 PPG; Sirius away: 1.20 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Sirius runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Sirius 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 63% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of AIK Stockholm's games and 77% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 63% of Sirius's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Sirius tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat AIK Stockholm 0-3 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.39 xG and Sirius 1.99 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sirius outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Sirius attack 1.35 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 26% | Draw 24% | Sirius 51%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 50%, Sirius 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.70 PPG, Sirius 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.