Kalmar FF 3-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfageln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 5 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Guldfageln Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfageln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Kalmar FF, 0.60 for Orgryte IS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kalmar FF 1W, Orgryte IS 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 45% versus Orgryte IS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 45% | Orgryte IS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 2.02 xG and Orgryte IS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.841 / defence 0.892 | Orgryte IS attack 0.645 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.475. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Kalmar FF games / 10 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 64% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 14%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Orgryte IS 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Kalmar FF (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 70% | Orgryte IS 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Guldfageln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 64% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Kalmar FF 2.02 / Orgryte IS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.841 / def 0.892 | Orgryte IS attack 0.645 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Orgryte IS xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 July 2026 at Guldfageln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Kalmar FF 3 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Guldfageln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 64% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.84) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.65x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.64
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.87
0.85
Orgryte IS xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
52.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.85 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 11D 8L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (17W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.55 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kalmar FF's home form reads 15W 2D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.68 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 21W 11D 8L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.35 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 3-0 on 5 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS?
From 3 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 50%, Orgryte IS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kalmar FF) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 55% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kalmar FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Orgryte IS 3-0 at Guldfageln Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 2.02 xG and Orgryte IS 0.85 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Orgryte IS attack 0.65 / defence 1.44, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 64% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 14%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 45%, Orgryte IS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.85 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.