IF Elfsborg 2-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg host Helsingborg at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, IF Elfsborg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg have won 0, Helsingborg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 63% versus Helsingborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 52% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.96 xG and Helsingborg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.111 / defence 1.103 | Helsingborg attack 0.902 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.339. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 IF Elfsborg games / 27 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 25%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Helsingborg 4.00. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Helsingborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.96 / Helsingborg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.111 / def 1.103 | Helsingborg attack 0.902 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Helsingborg xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 51% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 0W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.11x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.13
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.33
Helsingborg xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
3%
28.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.33 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 11W 13D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 4W 10D 13L from 27 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (5W 7D 1L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 1W 5D 7L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.04 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 13D 3L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 4W 10D 13L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Helsingborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.69 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Helsingborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2022, when IF Elfsborg 3-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IF Elfsborg at 69%, Helsingborg at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for IF Elfsborg and 69% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of IF Elfsborg's games and 69% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 69% of Helsingborg's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Helsingborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Helsingborg 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.96 xG and Helsingborg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Helsingborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.54, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 25%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 52%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.