Ostersunds FK 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 48% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 44% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.13 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.757 / defence 1.198 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.726 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.361. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Ostersunds FK games / 27 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.13 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.757 / def 1.198 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.726 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 33% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.76x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.20
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.32
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.19 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 9D 10L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.22 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 2W 4D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.77 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2020, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 54%, Varbergs BoIS FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ostersunds FK) and 46% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 38% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 46% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 46% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Ostersunds FK 0-4 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.13 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 44%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.22 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.