Sirius 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 42%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Mjallby AIF meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 November 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mjallby AIF are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sirius register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Mjallby AIF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 70% and Mjallby AIF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 67% | Mjallby AIF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.209 / defence 1.376 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.912 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.392. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Sirius games / 27 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 42% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 90% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 23 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 42% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Sirius 1.92 / Mjallby AIF 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.209 / def 1.376 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.912 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Sirius (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Mjallby AIF xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 November 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Sirius 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 42% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Sirius and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.21) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.91x) against Sirius's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
42%
2.40
23%
4.26
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.66
1.75
Mjallby AIF xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sirius and 1.75 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 10D 8L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Sirius against 1.41 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjallby AIF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.56 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Mjallby AIF in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Sirius's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.54 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sirius
2
Draws
7
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Sirius, 62% for Mjallby AIF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Sirius and 54% for Mjallby AIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Sirius's games and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Sirius's matches and 54% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Sirius and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.75 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.21 / defence 1.38 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.91 / defence 1.41, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 42% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 67%, Mjallby AIF 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.37 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.