Falkenbergs FF 1-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg meet at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Falkenbergs FF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Falkenbergs FF have posted 3W 3D 4L at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IF Elfsborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Falkenbergs FF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2020, ended 2–4 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Falkenbergs FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 65% and IF Elfsborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 58% | IF Elfsborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.25 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.992 / defence 1.346 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.858 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.354. Data: 26 Falkenbergs FF games / 26 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 42%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | IF Elfsborg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 60% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.25 / IF Elfsborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.992 / def 1.346 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.858 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
IF Elfsborg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2020 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 28% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Falkenbergs FF's attack at 0.99x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.86x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
28%
3.55
30%
3.37
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.82
1.56
IF Elfsborg xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
6%
16.95
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.56 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Falkenbergs FF have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 5W 8D 13L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 10W 13D 3L from 26 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Falkenbergs FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Falkenbergs FF have posted 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 6D 2L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.58 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; IF Elfsborg in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 13D 3L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.00 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2020, when Falkenbergs FF 1-3 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 62%, IF Elfsborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Falkenbergs FF) and 46% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 38%; Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Falkenbergs FF's recent games and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Falkenbergs FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Falkenbergs FF 1-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.25 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.35 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 42%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 58%, IF Elfsborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.