Helsingborg 0-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Helsingborg take on IFK Goteborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helsingborg host IFK Goteborg at Olympia in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Helsingborg at 0.90 PPG versus IFK Goteborg's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helsingborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IFK Goteborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 0 for IFK Goteborg and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 58% versus IFK Goteborg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | IFK Goteborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.92 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.706 / defence 0.962 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.759 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.347. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Helsingborg games / 26 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 30% | Draw 35% | IFK Goteborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | IFK Goteborg 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 60% | IFK Goteborg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 30% | Draw 35% | IFK Goteborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Helsingborg 0.92 / IFK Goteborg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.706 / def 0.962 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.759 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
IFK Goteborg xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 30% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
35%
2.82
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
1.90
0.98
IFK Goteborg xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.98 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 10D 12L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (4W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 0.85 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (2W 8D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 4W 10D 12L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 12D 10L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.08 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Helsingborg's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
1
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2022, when IFK Goteborg 1-3 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 46%, IFK Goteborg 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Helsingborg) and 46% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Helsingborg's games and 69% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Helsingborg's recent games and 46% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.92 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.98 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.71 / defence 0.96 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 30% | Draw 35% | IFK Goteborg 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, IFK Goteborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 0.85 PPG, IFK Goteborg 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.