Kalmar FF 0-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Kalmar FF, 1.20 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 56% versus Djurgardens IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 56% | Djurgardens IF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.78 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.613 / defence 1.342 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.901 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.339. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Kalmar FF games / 27 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 17% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 56%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 50% | Djurgardens IF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 17% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Kalmar FF 0.78 / Djurgardens IF 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.613 / def 1.342 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.901 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Djurgardens IF xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 17% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.61x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.90x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
17%
6.01
27%
3.64
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.40
1.62
Djurgardens IF xG
6.01
17%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
3%
30.31
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.6 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.62 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 5W 9D 13L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 12W 6D 9L from 27 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 0.62 PPG from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 2D 5L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.59 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 5W 9D 13L in their last 27 games (0.89 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.62 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 54%, Djurgardens IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kalmar FF) and 46% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 31%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 0-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.78 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.62 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.61 / defence 1.34 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 17% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 56%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 56%, Djurgardens IF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.