Gais 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Allsvenskan (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Gais (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gais's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Gais against 1.50 for Degerfors IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Gais edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Jul 2025, ended Gais 3–0 Degerfors IF — a Gais win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 50% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 48% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.29 xG and Degerfors IF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.930 / defence 0.679 | Degerfors IF attack 1.093 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.349. Gais have a tight defence (rating 0.679), which is pulling Degerfors IF's projected output down. Data: built from Gais's last 37 games and Degerfors IF's last 37.
Result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 29%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.31 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Gais's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gais 50% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Gais 1.29 / Degerfors IF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.930 / def 0.679 | Degerfors IF attack 1.093 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Gais (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does Gais vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Gais vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Gais 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Gais vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Degerfors IF part of?
Gais vs Degerfors IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 43% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gais and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Gais vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.93x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.09x) against Gais's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 37 games and Degerfors IF's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.57
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Gais xG
Total xG
2.29
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gais and 1.00 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Gais have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 16D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Gais against 1.42 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 8D 5L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 13W 8D 9L from their last 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.38 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Gais (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Gais vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are Gais and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Degerfors IF away?
Gais's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.97 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won Degerfors IF 0-3 Gais on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gais
1
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Degerfors IF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gais and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Degerfors IF 1-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Degerfors IF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 47%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gais) and 60% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and Degerfors IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Gais's games and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gais and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gais's recent games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Gais's recent matches and 73% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.29 xG and Degerfors IF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.93 / defence 0.68 against Degerfors IF attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 43% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 29%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.67 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.